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European businesses may soon face new costs if Donald Trump follows through on a 30% tariff on EU exports to the United States. The deadline is 1 August, and talks are still ongoing. Trump sent a letter to the EU earlier this month confirming his plan. He has already added separate tariffs on cars, steel, aluminium, and copper, and may target medicine and semiconductors next.

The EU had been hoping for a smaller, more manageable tariff of around 10%, but that now looks unlikely. According to people involved in the talks, exemptions will be limited. The current US duties already affect about 70% of EU exports, which is around 鈧�380 billion. These measures have added tension between Brussels and Washington, with negotiators racing to reach an agreement before the deadline.

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How Are Talks Going?

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Talks between the two sides have stalled.. Last week鈥檚 meetings in Washington brought no clear agreement. European officials are now preparing for what to do if the talks fail.

According to Bloomberg, some EU member states want the bloc to consider using its anti-coercion powers against the US. These could allow tariffs on tech companies, limits on American investment in the EU, or bans from bidding on public contracts.

At the same time, the EU has drawn up a list of 鈧�72 billion in extra US goods that could face tariffs if the 30% duty comes into force. These would build on the existing 鈧�21 billion already approved in response to earlier US steel and aluminium duties. Brussels has not announced anything yet but said preparations are under way.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU does not plan to act before 1 August but warned the US not to mistake that silence for weakness. EU trade chief Maro拧 艩ef膷ovi膷 said a 30% tariff would make sales to the US almost impossible.

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What Does This Do To Businesses In Europe?

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Goldman Sachs has warned that a full 30% tariff would lower eurozone GDP by 1.2% by the end of 2026. Even if there is a deal with selective tariffs on specific goods, the bank still sees a 0.6% drop. The largest effects would be felt soon after the tariffs begin.

Goldman鈥檚 Sven Jari Stehn said manufacturers are speeding up shipments to beat the deadline. He also said the recent strength in the euro, combined with falling orders, may limit production in the second half of the year.

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The market had been feeling upbeat. The euro has gained 11% against the dollar since January. European stocks have risen 10%. Bank of America鈥檚 latest survey showed 44% of fund managers expect better growth in the eurozone over the next year. That number was only 29% in June.

Investors have put more money into European shares than at any point in the past four years. Many placed their bets on Germany鈥檚 鈧�500 billion infrastructure plan and more spending across the bloc. The auto sector and banking stocks had drawn the most interest. Now that is at risk.

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Should EU Businesses Move To The UK?

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Experts share their thoughts on whether moving to the UK is a good strategy鈥�

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John Robins, Managing Partner and Head of Digital Marketing, Great Impressions Advertising and Marketing, said:

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鈥淚t鈥檚 not a bad choice鈥攅specially for businesses that export a significant portion of their goods to the U.S. A 30% tariff imposed by a second Trump administration is a major hit when you鈥檙e talking business. There鈥檚 always the possibility of a separate UK-U.S. tariff deal, which could potentially avoid this 30% tariff altogether.鈥�

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Ismet Bekirov, CIO, Co-Owner, Greenice, said:

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鈥淎s a custom software development company, we are considering enlarging our branch in Ukraine and selling services and products from there, rather than moving to UK. Central and western parts are relatively safe, and labour costs are much lower than in both UK and EU. We鈥檒l support a country in war with taxes and jobs.

鈥淭ariff on Ukraine is going to be the same 鈥� 10%.鈥�